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Vision for Electronic and Information Industry in 2010 - Part 2


Propositions

* Reforms of structure in societies and industries - toward service-oriented industries

In a seamless network society, electronics and information industries will be more service-oriented, shifting their focus from manufacturing devices to providing applications and services including software and contents. All electronic information devices will be connected to networks without any inconvenience for users. Applications which have been closed in devices will be available interchangeably among different devices, and there will be a wedding of devices and applications. As a result, the structure of industries will shift from sales business focusing on manufacture and sales of devices to contents and services. This trend will be accelerated in the course of addressing environmental problems. Society will shift from consumption-based to circulation-based activities, and products with added values will increase the importance of contents and services.

* Reforms of structure in companies

Adapting to the changes in the structure of industries, companies have been putting great efforts into developing new business models based on contents and services rather than models based on manufacture. They are quickly moving toward structural reform in terms of selection and concentration of business fields, reforms of profitability models, and reform of business processes. In the midst of the structural reform endeavors by companies, venture companies have been rapidly growing with new business model to offer, and the structure of industry itself is changing.


Figure 4 : Promising Applications of Electronics in Each Field in the Future


There will be changes in society, industries, and companies through the realization of the seamless network society and the economy will move into a virtuous circle. Companies have already started to act accordingly. The following five strategies should be employed by the public agencies such as governments to create the environment to support this.

1.Market creation
2.Improvement of market environment
- Deregulation
- Improvement of regulation
3.Support for technology development
4.Improvement of the information network infrastructure
5.Fosterage of human resources for computerization



1.Market Creation

(1) Introduction of core applications to society

Japan is ahead of other countries in the development of high-speed, large capacity backbone networks and leads the world in technologies for the hardware and devices necessary to implement seamless networks. Japan has a competitive edge in devices targeted at the households such as AV and game machines as well as in portable electronics devices. However, these technologies are not fully utilized in society and not reflected in the nation's life, and individual technological competitiveness does not lead to economic success. In Japan, a mechanism to foster the utilization of applications and their widespread use in society should be created. The most promising core applications of seamless networks such as mobile, EC, network information electrical appliance, ITS, electronic government, and medical care/welfare/education should be promoted. These applications draw on the competitiveness of Japan. They will reinvigorate the Japanese economy as well as provide better services to people all over the world.

(2) Fostering of governmental procurement of high technology devices and networks

The core applications in a seamless network society are in the social infrastructure domain, and the government should actively introduce them ahead of private agencies as part of creation of the affluent society. The government agencies and local governments providing public services should be reformed to be more suitable for a seamless network society. The government should introduce the applications in which Japan leads the world at the leading edge of the market, and try to promote widespread use in the world after making them commercially practical. Direct procurement by the government and government spending should be considered.


2.Improvement of Market Environment

(1) Deregulation

Currently, the system and regulations do not catch up with the changes in business processes and models against the backdrop of a rapid advance in technology. However, for new industries, regulations on such business models by the government should be minimum and free competition between private companies should be allowed. As essentials for the future, "regulation of export of products utilizing cipher" and "handling of documents which must be preserved" should be reviewed.

(2) Improvement of regulations

The following are necessary to be improved.
* Improvement of the Communication Business Law
* Review and improvement of regulations regarding protection of privacy
* Review regarding protection and utilization of copyright
* Comprehensive review of introduction of electronic authentication
* Expansion of the small business innovation research program (SBIR)
* Improvement of the structure reform system



3.Support for Technology Development

(1) Fostering of development of seamless network core technologies

To realize seamless network society, seamless networks must be build, and also advanced user friendly interface technology, high-level networking, and high performance computing technology for each layer must be established.

(2) Fostering of development of security technologies

In the seamless network society, reliability, security, and communication quality should be ensured so that all people can live safely. However, the risks of networking are increasing as demonstrated by the social problems regarding a hacker breaking into the website of the Japanese government. People and companies would be exposed to social risk. The government should remove this anxiety by building safe and reliable network systems and trying to create a "virtuous circle" of society.


4.Improvement of the Information Network Infrastructure

(1) Improvement of network infrastructures

As the network infrastructure is becoming our future social infrastructure, its usage environment of devices and applications necessary for the networks and their operation which carry information should be improved, instead of improvement of physical distribution in terms of railroads and roads in the past.

1:Improvement and expansion of communications infrastructures providing low cost use of the high speed Internet
New industries are expected to appear as the seamless network society is realized. However, high communications costs must be overcome to realize this. The government is expected to lower economic costs of the communications infrastructure by accelerating deregulation of communications and promoting competition among communications carriers. As a guide, the communications cost for data communication should be one tenth of the current cost by 2005. Introduction of high-speed large capacity lines and reduction of communications costs will lead to a massive amount of communication traffic which far exceeds the reduction of the communications rate, and in turn accelerate the expansion of new businesses and industries using network services.

2:Improvement of Last 10 and Personal Area Network (PAN)
Since the access network from the backbone line called the Last 10m to offices and households are still to be improved, many communications technologies coexist in this field and are contending, including standards. It is clear that any technology which dominates in this field will have the advantage of the seamless network technology. Japan should invest in the Last 10m or promote the improvement of the standards and regulations concerned.


Figure 5 : System of Seamless Network Technologies


For the communications technology between mobile devices for which portability is pursued and applications, how to establish the communications technology in the personal area network (PAN) is an important issue. In order for Japan to achieve a firm position in seamless network society, standards should be improved and social experiments should be done to realize the de facto standard in PAN communications technology.

3:Immediate improvement of ITS infrastructure
The situation is similar in the ITS technology. The ITS infrastructure has not been developed, and this slows down the widespread use of ITS. Japan has the world's top level technology in the element technologies in this field, such as on-vehicle terminals and traffic control/monitoring technologies. The infrastructure should be improved immediately and applications should be developed to realize widespread use in society.

(2) Services to foster widespread use of social infrastructures

Fostering of the Internet NPO for improvement of networks
There is no doubt that information networks will become our social infrastructure in the next generation. On the other hand, there is a risk of creating underdogs in the information society who cannot access networks. For elder people who have never used computers, the inability to use computers might be a social handicap. In the U.S. and Korea, NPOs are fostering the use of computers by elder people. They provide used computers and teach old people how to use them. In Japan, there should be volunteer Internet instructors and a mechanism to foster NPOs as well as tax incentives for the contribution of used PCs to households with elder people by companies.

Table 3 Challenges of High-Speed/Large Capacity Information Processing Technologies Toward 2010
Area Necessity of Acceleration of Technology Development Necessity of Technological Leap
Scalable
Computing
1 : In addition to technological computation, needs for high-end computing in the business computing area increase.

Example :
ERP requires performance one-order higher than the existing computers.
Large-scale data mining essential for CRM
Amusement
Visualization

2 : In addition to the existing PCs, many clients such as mobile computers and microminiature PDA such as sheet PCs exist. A so called universal information society with all people connected to the network (the Internet) is realized. All clients can access the Web, and access to the Web servers will become considerable. For Web computing, characteristics and frequency of accesses cannot be predicted and they can fluctuate largely. Immediate adaptation to a large demand change will be required.
1 : Scalable shared memory technology
* High-speed large capacity latency mutual connection network
* Memory-intensive applications in parallel
2 : Scalable NUMA
* Multiprocessor on chip, memory mixed processor, cache coherence maintenance mechanism, optical interconnection
3 : Parallel programming technology
* Memory hierarchical processing support, parallel extraction compiler, parallel description language, parallel algorithm
4 : Capacity on demand
* Technology to expand system without stopping as required
5 : Data load technology
* Uploads software without stopping as required. Recognizes load and balances the communication lines
6 : I/O technology
* Scalable I/O according to load
Middleware 1 : Sophisticated reuse and abstraction technologies (for the problem of magnitude)
2 : Sophisticated high quality technologies (for reliability)
3 : Multidimensional open technologies (for relevance)
 
Large capacity
high-speed
storage
Storage 1 : Magnet disk devices one-order faster than optic disk
2 : Increase of positioning accuracy
3 : Increase of surface density
4 : Cost reduction
1 : High-precision plastic substrates
2 : Removable drum
3 : Head disk interface
4 : Integration of OAW and magnetic recording
5 : Effective production of optical parts and simple designs
Semi
conductor
1 : Fosterage of development of ferro-electric memory
2 : High speed DRAM technology
3 : Material technology
* Ferro-electric materials, MRAM
4 : Memory mixture system LSI design technology
1: Micromachining process for 100nm or smaller
2 : MRAM
3 : One-gun memory


Table 4 Challenges of Network Technologies Toward 2010
Area Necessity of Acceleration of Technology Development Necessity of Technological Leap
Cable and Radio Technologies 1 : High-speed and large capacity radio communication
2 : Development of high-speed transmission method
3 : Development of frequency resources
* Application technology development considering characteristics of radio
For example, wireless compatible TCP/IP protocol as the Internet standard and assurance of QoS
* Communication added value technology utilizing characteristics of mobile For example, technology for extracting and providing positional information using accommodating area information.Antenna directivity control technology to improve accuracy of positional information measurement from the mobile network.Integration, search, and filtering technologies for contents with positioning information
4 : Cable very high-speed network
* Very high speed router compatible to IP
* Promotion of wavelength multiplexing technology
1 : Development of new high speed transmission method and frequency resources
* Development of high efficiency amplifier, high performance antenna, and new high speed modulation method as the technology for the use of quasi-milli waves and milli waves
2 : Great sophistication of wireless network configuration
* Research on consistency between communication architectures. Development of mutual connection technologies such as wireless LAN, mobile public network, and optic high speed communication network.
* Packet (IP) communication technology on wireless network. Adaptation to line break utilizing wireless TCP and agent technology
* Contents will evolve from data to real-time information such as video (including voice). QoS research in wireless TCP is needed.
* The VolPon wireless technology to carry real-time media such as voice via wireless TCP/IP is not complete in a large system.
3 : Great sophistication of wireless terminals
* Direct control of radio by software becomes possible such as software radio which adapts to many radio methods by a single hardware unit (terminal). Such research will be needed.
4 : WDM optical fiber network
* Innovation of IPV6 technology* Optical parts/devices for flexible network configuration by optical Add/Drop are essential.
Information broadcast   1 : Great sophistication and improvement of IP network technology
* Establishment of band reservation technology to cover broadcasting services regardless of types of backbone and access networks
* Establishment of QoS technology according to the characteristics of contents in multicast
* Establishment of network policy management technology including QoS
2 : Protection of rights in production and distribution of contents
*Establishment of standards and methods for protection of rights in production and distribution of contents
3 : Technology for searching contents efficiently
* Search engine for multimedia contents
* Service agent handling multimedia contents
4 : Capturing to mobile multimedia
* Establishment of technology system supporting mobile multimedia
Security 1 : Continuous development of cipher technology
2 : Electronic signature system implementing the person's intention reliably
3 : Establishment of Public Key Infrastructure(PKI)
* Establishment of interoperability
* Large scale and high performance
* Authentication technology for attributes
* PKI application technology for the existing application system resources
4 : LSI development and production technology for IC cards
5 : Network security technology allowing access control by user or by device
6 : Illegal access automatic trace technology
1 : Practical use of quantum cipher
2 : Electronic signature system assuring safety in the future
3 : Breakthroughs in IC cards (power saving technology, etc.)
* Low power LSI technology
* Public key cipher method with computation a few order smaller
* Antenna technology with EMF a few order larger
* Microminiature battery
4 : Anti-tamper technology
* Advanced information filtering system


Table 5 Challenges of Usability and Other Technologies Toward 2010
Area Necessity of Acceleration of Technology Development Necessity of Technological Leap
Usability Technologies Input/output: Knowledge acquisition 1 : Increase of information traffic
2 : Added values to information due to digitization
3 : Integration of information flow and distribution
4 : Change in lifestyle due to global network
1 : Implementation of natural interface
2 : Establishment of agent technology
3 : Extension of digital archives
4 : Development of auto translation software
5 : Establishment of language understanding technology
Input: Voice and image recognition * So called natural interfaces such as character and voice recognition are in practical use but inan ideal environment with operation training.
* Input and response are not divided. Input and output technologies are investigated individually. Interaction technology to integrate them is needed.
1:Universal and generic interface
Voice recognition which can be used in any environment, interface which can be used without training and transparent interface
2 : Development of interface technology integrating input and output technologies, and comprehensive interaction technology including support such as translation and meaning extraction
Output/graphics [[Display]] 1:Produce processor and peripherals on the same substrate
(Formation of electronic circuit including MPU, decoder, tuner, memory on glass substrate)
[[Display]] 1 : Display in nano silicon structure
* Construction of system on paper device on forming on plastic film
[[Graphics]]1:Virtual reality superimposing technology
2 : Researches on borders between image, voice spaces and real space in 3D media production
3 : Cerebrophysiology study regarding the system
4 : Development of new architecture processor for 3D
* Development of FPGA and PCA technologies
5 : Real-time 3D video data communication technology
* Large capacity optical space transmission, milli-wave communication
Other technologies Micromachining 1:Accelerated development of lithography technology
2 : Accelerated development of film forming process
3 : Accelerated development of design and test technology
1 : Overcoming critical technology under 100nm
* any other technologies such as wiring, CMOS, design, test, and methodology have reached their limits. The development of critical technologies is necessary.
2 : Development of new architecture with ultrahigh speed operation
Power management 1 : Increase of energy density of secondary battery
2 : Power saving technology to realize mobile solutions
3 : High energy density accumulation technology
4 : Development of Mn positive materials stable for a long time under high voltage
5 : Development of large lithium batteries which are small and safe for the early realization of electric and hybrid cars.
1 : Development of polymer type thin and light secondary batteries



5.Fostering of Human Resources for Computerization

(1) Fostering of human resources for computerization and improvement of the environment in which they can flourish

The information technology such as the Internet and mobile communication supported the economic development in the U.S. in the 90's. The information technology not only provided a quantum leap to system and hardware manufacturers but to financial and distribution services. In Japan, information engineers who can develop core applications should be fostered. Also, human resources which utilize information technology on the user side in various industries such as financial and distribution industries to reinvigorate industry and reform our social structure should be fostered. Moreover, a social environment where excellent human resources can flourish should be built and a society which can be easily reformed by computerization should be developed.

(2) Improvement in information infrastructure for knowledge acquisition and expansion of creative abilities

As a result of the widespread use of computers, the forms of intellectual activities of people are changing. Memory and knowledge/information acquisition functions will be performed by computer networks instead of humans. Among the intellectual activities of human being, how to think and how to come up with solutions will be more important. Today, as creativity becomes more important, education should shift its focus from memorizing to creative thinking. The present education system is laying emphasis more on thinking rather than memorizing. However, the amount of information and knowledge is increasing in society, and it is impossible to unload our memory. Rather, knowledge acquisition and memory should be performed by computers and creative thinking should be fostered.




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